Well, yesterday sucked.
For those whom we didn’t lead astray: We bet a little more than we had available in the “daily bets” portion of our bankroll. We thought there was a 2% chance this would go disastrously, since we needed only one of the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Chevrolet (in the IndyCar race) to win and we estimated the probability of a Chevy win at 90%. Then, with Chevy’s running 1–2, a late caution came out with both of them in the pits and with Alex Palou driving a Honda at the front of the field. When the Blue Jays fell to the A’s a few hours later, we had to dip into funds earmarked for MLB futures.
We’re taking 20 units—one week’s worth of futures—and adding them to Daily Bets, but the units are going to be very small for the time being. Need to get through these weeks and get to September and October, when the combination of football and our MLB futures payouts should breathe life into this effort.
Home Run Derby
Let’s say that the Home Run Derby markets are perfectly efficient and that the ~12% vig is split proportionally across all contestants. If that’s the case, there’s a 47% chance an NL hitter wins tonight, which—at +115 odds, the longest we’re seeing for the NL in this market—offers a 1% eROI.
You can make far worse bets on the Home Run Derby.
Pick: National League Hitter to win +115. 0.12 units to win 0.14.
NLCS
The Brewers have the third-best record in the National League. FanGraphs projects them to win 90 games. Their playoff chances are almost identical to those of the Mets, whose starting pitching is weaker than Milwaukee’s. The Mets’ odds are more than twice as expensive as the Brewers’.
The Mets would be a bad, bad bet right now, so this all alone doesn’t mean the Brewers are valuable. But the Brewers are valuable, set up for a dogfight with the Cubs and yet another chance to exorcise the October demons.
We’ve got a lot on these guys. But the value keeps being too good to pass up.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1400. 2.00 units to win 28.00.
AL East
On the division side, the Red Sox have forced their way back to within a game of the Yankees. They’re still three games back of Toronto, but this gives us profitable angles on all of the Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays, while leaving the Yankees hardly unprofitable. We’re playing from behind as far as favorites go, but this gives us a chance to at least acquire some leverage over the next couple months.
Pick: Boston to win +900. 2.00 units to win 18.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –487.85 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 488 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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