We’ll get a lot of units back if the Dodgers win tonight, and the Dodgers will probably win tonight, so units will get bigger tomorrow. Is that going to be a good thing, or are we just going to lose more units on a college football Saturday? Great question.
We’re steering clear of MLB futures again today. No value that helps our portfolio.
Louisville at Miami
What we’re looking at here:
- Movelor has Miami favored by 13.6.
- Miami’s 3–2 against Movelor’s spread this year, up 3.3 points. Louisville’s also 3–2, down 0.1 points. Those numbers are great for us. No concern that Movelor’s being too slow to catch up to something.
- Movelor has Miami ranked 8th in the country, which feels good as a gut check. It’s not head over heels for these guys. It knows they play in the ACC.
- The line has moved towards Louisville late today. I haven’t seen any indication of why, which smells a little like bored public money on a line in between common final margins (10 and 13).
- Our concerns with Miami are long-term and short-term focus. Our concern with Louisville is situational game management.
- Miami’s long-term focus is worrisome coming off two bye weeks in a three-week stretch, but that also might make it easier to focus this week. After this week is when it becomes a slog.
- Miami’s short-term focus is worrisome in any game, but while they do let teams (ND, FSU) back into games, this line is only a touchdown and a half, and that’s a weirdly specific scenario to worry too much about.
- Lousiville’s situational game management shouldn’t matter much if this is around the line.
If it was Saturday, we’d probably lay off this and find something better. But we don’t like anything better than this tonight. We’ll roll with the Hurricanes. See the note above about units. Cash flow is coming.
Pick: Miami –10.5 (–107). 0.25 units to win 0.23.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –457.78 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 839 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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