Good day yesterday, especially on the motorsports. Major League Baseball and the last of Week 1 today, with the MLB bets including the first futures of September. It’s home stretch season.
New York (NL) at Detroit
Heat Index’s first choice remains the Mets, even though they play the hotter-than-average Tigers. Over their last six series, the Mets have raked.
We do like getting Sean Manaea’s value in this one. Great underlying numbers.
Pick: New York to win –107. 0.29 units to win 0.27. Manaea and Morton must start.
Cleveland at Boston
Heat Index’s second choice is the Red Sox, with the Guardians entering this series with a shocking 46 wRC+ over the last three weeks. That means Cleveland’s hit 54% worse than the MLB long-term average.
Pick: Boston to win –140. 0.39 units to win 0.28. Messick and Bello must start.
Chicago (AL) at Minnesota
On the spot-based side, we really don’t like the Twins at today’s pricing. Especially with Bailey Ober’s recent struggles. This will probably lose—it’s still a value play‚ but odds beyond –150 on Minnesota right now are nuts.
Pick: Chicago to win +160. 0.24 units to win 0.38. Ellard and Ober must start.
World Series
Value’s narrowly available on the Tigers again. Between the Blue Jays and Yankees, it’s likeliest someone will pass them and take the AL’s 1-seed, but the nice thing about that is that it means avoiding drawing both the Blue Jays or Yankees in the ALDS.
Pick: Detroit to win +1000. 2.00 units to win 20.00.
NL West
And on the division side, we’re always excited when there’s value available on the Dodgers.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –325. 2.00 units to win 0.62.
TCU at North Carolina
Nothing different from what’s been working on college football. Unders and underdogs in Week 1. We’ll see about Week 2.
Pick: North Carolina to win +155. 0.09 units to win 0.14.
Pick: Under 54.5 (–105). 0.14 units to win 0.13.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –494.50 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 683 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
