More baseball wins yesterday, and if the Phillies clinch tonight we’ll have enough cash flow to start betting MLB futures tomorrow.
Let’s get on with it.
Baltimore at Chicago (AL)
Kyle Bradish has pitched well since returning to the IL. Against the White Sox, that’s enough for us to believe.
Pick: Baltimore to win –133. 0.39 units to win 0.29. Bradish must start.
New York (AL) at Minnesota
Heat Index’s second choice is that Yankees tonight, though the Twins’ bats show up well over these last three weeks.
Pick: New York to win –190. 0.55 units to win 0.29. Rodón and Woods Richardson must start.
San Francisco at Arizona
Heat Index’s first choice is the Giants.
Pick: San Francisco to win +113. 0.26 units to win 0.29. Teng and Gallen must start.
Tampa Bay at Houston
Regular readers know how simple our NFL approach is. We look at FPI’s spread for primetime games and we bet on that side. Occasionally, there are issues with this. For example: Tonight there are two night games?
We’re counting Tampa Bay/Houston as the primetime one. Why does that matter? We expect these games to get more public action, which is helpful in the NFL.
Pick: Tampa Bay +3 (–120). 0.35 units to win 0.29.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –484.17 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 744 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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