We’re still a long ways in the red on the year, but it was a good day yesterday. Four wins, one loss, and a successful finish to our NBA playoff futures portfolio, which yielded a 32% return over just more than two months. (Our NHL portfolio lost 2%, so combined, they gave us a 15% return.)
More MLB moneyline action today, as we see if we can get our “spot” approach to have a higher win percentage than the odds imply it should. If it does, we’ll start using a p-value which gives us higher than a 1% eROI when calculating our Kelly criterion. We’ve got MLB futures as well.
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
We’re admittedly playing tonight a bit tighter than we’ve played the last few days. We were tempted by the Mariners, Yankees, and Orioles. We’re only going with the Brewers, though, and this is why:
First, we don’t think the Pirates expect to win right now when their lesser pitching options take the mound. A bullpen game a day after using some of their better options to preserve their third win in a couple weeks? We don’t like that matchup against a Brewers team with all the confidence in the world.
Second, we just had a great day yesterday, and we don’t want to blow up the progress we’ve made. Our “spot” approach—looking for teams in good single-day situations and ignoring most of the hard data—has given us a .529 win percentage against average odds which need .543 to profit. Win this one, and we jump to .556 against .548, or an expected return of 1.38%. That’s a profitable track record, and it’d be encouraging heading into Tuesday, a day we think we have an edge because of the Tuesday Winners phenomenon we’ve written about before (winners win on Tuesdays, losers win on Sundays). We don’t think Chad Patrick’s going to maintain his 3.50 ERA or 3.60 FIP, but he’s yet to turn in a terrible start and the Brewers’ bats stand a good chance of continuing to tee off.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –172. Ashcraft and Patrick must start. 1.80 units to win 1.05.
NLCS
Markets reacted to the Phillies taking two of three from the Mets, but more in the division realm than over here on the pennant. There was already value on Philadelphia, and it’s still there. The bigger value, though, is on the Brewers, who didn’t really move after pulverizing the Twins, scoring 35 runs in a three-game sweep. Milwaukee’s in playoff position as things stand, and FanGraphs gives them nearly a 50/50 shot to stay there.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +550. 2.00 units to win 11.00.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +3300. 2.00 units to win 66.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –375.54 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 410 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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