In 2019–20 and 2020–21, we made our money in college basketball bets (when we made it) by following kenpom in nonconference play. These last few years, we made our money (when we made it) by betting on the rhythm of the conference season, especially from the second week of January through the second week of February. In that time, we’ve found games to be fairly predictable, with teams seeming to “pick their spots.” There’s an issue this year, though.
We’re really out of touch with college basketball.
We have enough of a baseline coexistence with the sport to have some idea of what’s going on, but we’re a little scared of these next few weeks as we get back up and running. Hopefully we didn’t miss too much. To start, we’ll check on a couple teams who we do know well.
Miami at Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s a perpetual mess these days, and there’s reason for skepticism around whether their extreme reliance on Carson Towt’s rebounding can work against high-major athletes. Miami’s unproven, though. This should be a spot where Notre Dame at least puts itself in a position to win. There’s a good chance they don’t finish the job, but they should at least get to the doorstep.
Pick: Notre Dame +5.5 (–115). 3.76 units to win 3.27.
Iowa State at Kansas
I’d love to be wrong, but I think this is where we see Kansas play a good game. Darryn Peterson’s been active for a little while now, giving Bill Self & Co. a chance to figure out what they have. Allen Fieldhouse is going to be nuts. Iowa State knows what it’s up against, and undoubtedly has this circled, but Milan Momcilovic isn’t going to shoot 55% on threes forever.
Pick: Kansas +4 (–115). 3.76 units to win 3.27.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –514.43 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,032 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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