Got beat up a little yesterday. On to the next.
Philadelphia at Atlanta
One of the weird things about Ranger Suarez’s recent run is that the success has come despite allowing three home runs across his last four starts. Encouragingly, none of those home runs would have been a home run in all thirty ballparks. They haven’t been cheap, but there’s probably a little bad luck there, as opposed to a real home run problem waiting to blow up when one happens with more men on base.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +130. 0.45 units to win 0.59. Suarez and Strider must start.
Chicago (NL) at Houston
Framber Valdez, on the other hand, is probably going to allow more home runs. He’s allowing them on almost a third fewer fly balls than even the last few years. His xERA is almost a full run higher than his ERA.
Still, these odds underestimate how shaky Jameson Taillon’s been, and how dubious the bullpen is behind him. The Astros should take this series.
(Shoutout FanGraphs, by the way. Always shoutout FanGraphs.)
Pick: Houston to win –148. 0.86 units to win 0.58. Taillon and Valdez must start.
Los Angeles at Kansas City
Yes, Kris Bubic’s been great this year, and it’s a getaway day plus an opportunity to get starters two full days of rest. But generally, we see that more when a team doesn’t have a chance to win a series, and while the Dodgers need wins less than most do, the opportunity to bet the best team in baseball at this price as a Saturday loser playing on a Sunday is tough to pass up. The potential for some weird wind—something which should help offense, especially if it’s blowing out to left as forecasted—adds to the upside.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –115. 0.67 units to win 0.58. Wrobleski and Bubic must start.
Austrian Grand Prix (Formula 1)
One of many bad things about our shoddy tracking of these bets is that we don’t know our return so far this season on F1 picks. We’re pretty sure it’s solid, but we don’t know for sure. Since we don’t know for sure, we’re going to keep this unit on the smaller side, plugging an expected five percent return into our Kelly criterion calculation. I think we could go higher, but at the same time, these are very short odds, even by F1 standards. We think Norris will be fine today—polesitters have won seven of ten races this year, McLaren’s won seven of ten races this year, and Norris has won both times he’s started from the pole—but even 70% is only –233 odds. At –240 odds, to assume a five percent return, we’re really assuming roughly a 74% win probability. It’s possible that’s a little too high.
Pick: Lando Norris to win –240. 6.95 units to win 2.90.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –422.10 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 433 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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