Three losses in a row, so we’re going to pivot, at least for the night.
Texas at Arkansas
We like Arkansas against the spread here for a few reasons. First, it’s only one point off the kenpom number, which goes with our approach of trusting the market in these close–to–kenpom conference games. Second, these are two good offenses playing what’s probably going to be a relatively high-possession game (thanks to Arkansas’s tempo and Texas’s reliance on getting to the free throw line, something that at least in theory should drive up fouls which in turn should shorten a few possessions when Texas is in the bonus). The higher the possession count, the wider the spread should be. It’s marginal, but everything is in markets as efficient as college basketball.
Pick: Arkansas –7 (–110). 4.67 units to win 4.25.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –571.18 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,091 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
