Good night last night. No football futures today after all—running a little short on time—but we’ll have those for this week tomorrow.
Baltimore at Chicago (AL)
On the spot-based side, we’re back on the Orioles against the White Sox. Two good starts for Tyler Wells since coming off the IL.
Pick: Baltimore to win –118. 2.39 units to win 2.03. Wells and Pérez must start.
Seattle at Kansas City
Heat Index’s second choice is again the Mariners, though we have to deal with the return of Cole Ragans tonight. Would guess Bryce Miller’s on a short leash?
Pick: Seattle to win +108. 1.87 units to win 2.02. Miller and Ragans must start.
Anaheim at Milwaukee
Heat Index’s first choice is once again the Brewers. Not as hot as the Mariners (by Heat Index’s measure, which is wRC+ and FIP), but the Angels are the coldest team below 5,280 feet.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –220. 4.45 units to win 2.02. Soriano and Woodruff must start.
ALCS
A little more future on the Mariners here. The division thing is important, but it’s not as critical when it’s the 3-seed vs. the 5-seed or 6-seed. Especially when the top two seeds aren’t that different from each other.
Pick: Seattle to win +375. 2.00 units to win 7.50.
NLCS
A little more on the Mets as well. Really looks like they’re going to hold onto this playoff berth.
Pick: New York to win +1100. 2.00 units to win 22.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –483.56 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 750 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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