Good day yesterday. Movelor’s humming, Heat Index has been spectacular, and the Mets are probably going to miss the playoffs but at least the Astros did too (futures portfolio implications).
Nothing spot-based on the MLB side today. We’re running out the clock on that. We pivoted to those in June and they went 121–95 against average odds of –112. Not full proof of concept, but probably a sign that we need to be more subjective in the early-going. On the completely objective side, Heat Index is 69–35 against average odds of –153 heading into Game 162 today. Great stuff from that little system.
Today’s Heat Index plays ahead, plus Sunday Night Football and NASCAR. Go Brewers; Go Mets (futures portfolio implications).
Baltimore at New York (AL)
The only change today is that the Yankees are Heat Index’s first choice, while…
Pick: New York to win –174. 10.30 units to win 5.92. Bradish and Gil must start.
Colorado at San Francisco
The Rockies losing is Heat Index’s second choice.
Pick: San Francisco to win –290. 17.17 units to win 5.92. Brown and Webb must start.
Dallas at Green Bay
FPI likes the Cowboys to cover here. Not to win, but to cover.
Pick: Dallas +6.5 (–105). 6.22 units to win 5.92.
Hollywood Casino 400
Toyotas were best in qualifying yesterday. Bubba Wallace is starting inside the top ten. Bubba Wallace has incentives to race for points rather than get risky in the name of a win. Bubba Wallace has won at Kansas before. These odds should probably be shorter than even.
Pick: Bubba Wallace to finish top ten +110. 2.69 units to win 2.96.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –447.56 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 799 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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