*Whispers*
There’s futures value on the Dodgers again today.
Detroit at Cleveland
Heat Index’s second choice. The Guardians are the third-hottest team in baseball, 6% better than average at the plate and 33% better on the mound over the last six series. The Tigers are third-coldest, 9% worse at the plate and 22% worse on the mound.
Pick: Cleveland to win +136.1.60 units to win 2.18. Skubal and Williams must start.
Colorado at Seattle
Heat Index’s first choice. Hottest team vs. coldest team. This might be a Heat Gap record.
Pick: Seattle to win –270. 5.88 units to win 2.18. Brown and Miller must start.
Houston at Sacramento
This is spot-based. The Astros aren’t getting a bump despite Cristian Javier performing better than reasonable expectations would expect. The Astros also aren’t getting a playoff contender bump. They’re cold, but it’s surprising that the market’s giving them the meltdown discount.
Pick: Houston to win –104. 2.26 units to win 2.17. Javier and Springs must start.
NLCS
There’s still value on the Dodgers today, and we’re still going to take it. Entering tonight’s games, the Dodgers are the NLCS favorites per FanGraphs despite having to play in the Wild Card Series. Some of that might have to do with late-season Depth Charts shenanigans (Depth Charts gets funky during the last week or so of the season because starting pitchers’ inning shares are different for the remainder of the regular season from what they’ll be in October), but still. If we can get Dodgers, we’re going to get Dodgers.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +300. 4.00 units to win 12.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –469.48 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 778 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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