Heat Index returns today. As a refresher, or for those who didn’t follow it last year: Late in the baseball season, when teams treat rest differently and some of the series fundamentals start to break down, we’ve seen higher streakiness in the past. Last year, we tried measuring this using recent FIP– and wRC+ (we’ll be using the last three full weeks of series, so a span ranging from three to three and a half weeks). We found that for a good stretch of August and September, we could win by betting the hot team in the two games with the biggest combined FIP–/wRC+ gap.
We’re going to keep doing our “spot”-based approach as well, since it’s 79–60 since we started it in June, a 6.67% return through the lens of its –114 average odds. To square that circle: We’ll pick our “spot”-based games first. We’ll keep pegging our unit on those games to that return against average odds. For Heat Index and Heat Index 2, we’ll peg our unit to an expected 5% return. When the two come in conflict, we’ll axe the “spot”-based pick. When the two are conjoined, we’ll add the units together so long as we aren’t projecting higher than a 15% return. This is aggressive, but we’re only doing it with the very small Daily Bets portion of our bankroll, which will remain very small until either we get spectacularly hot or we get to October.
Sacramento at Washington
Since the All-Star Break, the second-best team in baseball is the White Sox and the fourth-best team in the A’s. As measured by wRC+ and FIP, at least, which we think of as the gold standard in reflecting offensive performance and pitching, respectively. It’s not adjusted for opponent, and it doesn’t fully show up in wins and losses (they’re a combined 19–16), but Heat Index likes how both those teams are playing. Also, the Nationals have been the second-worst team in baseball since the break. By those metrics.
Pick: Sacramento to win –146. 0.74 units to win 0.51. Lopez and Parker must start.
Miami at Atlanta
Heat Index’s second preference—and the “spot” we dislike the least today—is the Marlins tonight in Atlanta. Carlos Carrasco was solid in his Atlanta debut, but it wasn’t a return to 2018. Eury Pérez has been very, very good. We’re wary of the Marlins, who’ve been winning more than their numbers suggest should be the case, but we’ll ride with them again tonight and hope to get away with it.
Pick: Miami to win –119. 1.40 units to win 1.18. Pérez and Carrasco must start.
ALCS
Despite their recent struggles—struggles which nearly pushed them out of playoff position before yesterday’s win in Texas—the Yankees are listed on FanGraphs as the fourth-likeliest AL pennant winner. That is…probably right? They’ve definitely underachieved in October under Aaron Boone, but it’s far from statistically significant, with a 6–6 record in postseason series and Wild Card Games. On paper, this is the best team in the American League. On the field, it’s been the sixth-best. Fourth-likeliest to win the pennant checks out, and with a roster that good, getting them at an affordable price is almost a necessity when doing a portfolio approach, especially in a world where the Dodgers won’t be affordable until they trail in a postseason series (and might not even be affordable then).
Pick: New York (AL) to win +550. 4.00 units to win 22.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –489.89 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 559 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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