All our heroes.
Chicago (AL) at Washington
Both these teams have been terrible lately, but the White Sox’ bats are real quiet and we believe in Cade Cavalli.
Pick: Washington to win –127. 7.41 units to win 5.83. Gómez and Cavalli must start.
Texas at Cleveland
Heat Index’s first choice is the Guardians. Expensive, but hard to argue with it.
Pick: Cleveland to win –150. 8.76 units to win 5.84. Leiter and Cecconi must start.
Colorado at San Francisco
Heat Index’s second choice is to bet against the Rockies. Expensive, but hard to argue with it.
Pick: San Francisco to win –232. 13.54 units to win 5.84. Márquez and McDonald must start.
NLCS
We’re going with the Dodgers again here. The value’s debatable, but we do think it’s probably there, and the Mets are our highest-upside option in the NL, so this is a little bit of a hedge. No MLB futures this weekend. We’ll wait until FanGraphs has their playoff numbers out on Monday or Tuesday.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +310. 4.00 units to win 12.40.
Houston at Oregon State
We don’t have great options tonight on the college football side. If Florida State’s as good as Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, then the 6.5-point line at Virginia is right where it should be. Is that how good FSU is? That’s a reasonable guess. Elsewhere, Movelor and the betting markets have the exact same line for TCU vs. Arizona State.
So, we turn to Houston, which Movelor has favored by 14.3. 0.8 points isn’t enough to justify a pick, but we have reason to believe Movelor could still be undervaluing Houston, the second-most positively surprising Power Four team so far relative to Movelor’s preseason expectations. (FSU is first.) Willie Fritz might have something cooking.
Pick: Houston –13.5 (–110). 3.21 units to win 2.92.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –449.24 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 789 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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