The bad news: Our futures are in the hole a little bit.
The good news: Illinois.
NCAA Tournament
We already have a bit on Illinois, but the leverage here is awesome. If UConn wins, these odds will get a good bit shorter. If Duke wins, they should honestly probably get shorter as well. Illinois would probably be favored against UConn, and they’d be about a 4-point underdog against Duke even if the markets really like the Blue Devils.
What we have, then:
- Down 30.74 units so far.
- 45 units pending.
- 10 of those pending units are on Duke to win today. They’d pay 8.70.
- 5 of those pending units are on Illinois State to win the NIT. They’d pay 60.
- 15 of those pending units are on Duke to win the tournament. They’d pay 63.75.
- 15 of those pending units are on Illinois to win the tournament. They’d pay 165.
Most likely, then, if we didn’t place any more bets this week we’d enter the weekend with the following scenarios for our 200-unit portfolio:
- Arizona/Michigan/Tennessee/UConn: Net –57.04.
- Duke: Net 36.71.
- Illinois: Net 137.96.
That should be hedge-able if we want it to be. And we’ve still got the Illinois State out, plus more bets to place this week.
Pick: Illinois to win tournament +550. 10.00 units to win 55.00.
Duke vs. UConn
Duke’s operated in a separate sphere from the rest of the ACC these last few years, but on a day where it’s hard to find an angle, you can do worse than fading the ACC, which has really struggled this month against the kenpom spread.
Pick: UConn +5.5 (–115). 3.49 units to win 3.03.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –562.17 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,112 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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