Gotta do our futures today. Sorry to the loyalists for putting them off this long. First, we’ll do the daily bets.
Green Bay at Detroit
The Packers and Lions seem too evenly matched to take a favorite. Also, the narrative’s a lot higher on the Lions despite the pair playing comparably right now.
Pick: Green Bay +3 (–105). 1.03 units to win 0.98.
Kansas City at Dallas
Speaking of narratives: The Cowboys have momentum. Easy to get carried away by that.
Pick: Kansas City –3 (–120). 1.17 units to win 0.98.
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Hate this so much, but seven and a half’s a lot of points on a short week.
Pick: Cincinnati +7.5 (–110). 1.07 units to win 0.97.
Navy at Memphis
We really don’t know what to make of Memphis right now, but whichever way they’re playing, we trust their offense and we don’t trust their defense.
Pick: Over 58 (–107). 1.05 units to win 0.98.
Oregon vs. Creighton
Creighton’s struggles have been a more prominent story than Oregon’s. Both are struggling, though.
Pick: Creighton –1 (–105). 1.03 units to win 0.98.
NFC
We’re buying low on the Packers here, too. The roster is better than the team, and with this much season to go, that’s a good sign.
Pick: Green Bay to win +750. 6.00 units to win 45.00.
Super Bowl
More Packers here, plus the Patriots, who are running away with the AFC East, easy schedule or not.
Pick: New England to win +1800. 3.00 units to win 54.00.
Pick: Green Bay to win +1800. 3.00 units to win 54.00.
ACC
We’ve finally got every tiebreaker scenario into our model, and it likes this price on SMU. Between this, our SEC position from last week, and the 2-ish units we’re almost guaranteed to profit on our bets on teams to make the playoff, we’re set to profit on the first round of payouts.
Pick: SMU to win –110. 2.00 units to win 1.82.
MAC
Miami’s more of an underdog, but the tiebreaker situation favors them more heavily than I think the market’s put together. They have two crucial head-to-head losses, but because Ohio and Toledo didn’t play each other, the RedHawks can still win a three-way tie there.
Pick: Miami (OH) to win +260. 1.00 unit to win 2.60.
Sun Belt
Troy’s got a good shot to beat Southern Miss, and if they do that, we don’t think the moneyline next week will be longer than 5-to-1 against JMU.
Pick: Troy to win +2200. 1.00 unit to win 22.00.
Big 12
Finally: There’s enough of a chance here. 55-to-1 is too tempting to let go.
Pick: Utah to win +5500. 1.00 unit to win 55.00.
FCS National Championship
On the FCS side, NDSU is dominant, but if anyone’s going to beat them it’s Montana State. In almost 50% of our latest 10,000 simulations, it’s Bison vs. Bobcats in the national championship. If we get that, this is going to give us great leverage.
Pick: Montana State to win +575. 2.00 units to win 11.50.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –540.30 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 966 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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