More futures tomorrow as we continue to catch up. Today, we’ve got the last of our MLB futures portfolio plus college football, including those futures for the week.
World Series
Our MLB futures portfolio is now this, not including this bet:
- We’re up 162.50 units.
- We’ve got 168.00 units pending.
- We lose 106.00 more units if the Dodgers win.
- We win 104.00 more units if the Blue Jays win.
So, we’re going to hedge a little bit. Not a lot—we want to preserve some of that Blue Jays upside, and while we don’t fully trust Max Scherzer, the Dodgers have maybe asked Shohei Ohtani to do too much even for him—but some. Not including today’s football plays, this will leave us with a –3% overall average return on the year if the Blue Jays win and a –5% overall average return if the Dodgers win. Terrible, of course, but within shouting distance as our football futures portfolios keep churning and we get into the time of year where last year, Movelor had a good performance against the spread in big games.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –142. 34.00 units to win 23.94.
Duke at Clemson
The most important question here is whether Clemson has quit. With Cade Klubnik back, we think they get a little surge. Even if they don’t, though, Movelor has them a 6.9-point favorite here. And because Movelor doesn’t directly consider injuries, that’s probably a point or two low.
Pick: Clemson –4 (–110). 11.26 units to win 10.24.
Navy at North Texas
We love the military, but Navy’s been playing a lot of Grenadas.
Pick: North Texas –6.5 (–115). 11.77 units to win 10.23.
Penn State at Ohio State
There’s a perception that Ohio State hasn’t been blowing teams out. Nobody but Texas has covered +17.5 against them. Penn State isn’t as good as Washington or Illinois.
Pick: Ohio State –17.5 (–110). 11.26 units to win 10.24.
Kansas State at Texas Tech
Shaky QB situation for the Red Raiders. Front line starting to crack and give way to some unproven depth. K-State’s playing better and playing at home.
Movelor likes the Wildcats, and so do we.
Pick: Kansas State +7 (–102). 10.44 units to win 10.24.
Georgia vs. Florida
The idea behind the interim bump is that the team gets some fresh ways of doing things, regains some motivation, and regresses towards their baseline. The problem with that with Florida is that Billy Napier’s issues were more long-term poor development of talent than short-term mistakes and underperformance. Also? Georgia’s good. I don’t know why a team that only lost to Alabama keeps getting this disrespect.
Pick: Georgia –7 (–110). 11.26 units to win 10.24.
Mississippi State at Arkansas
Is the idea here that Mississippi State is so heartbroken after last week’s loss that they won’t go on? We used to think the narrative was unkind to Arkansas, but I’m not sure the Bulldogs don’t win this outright. Neither of these teams is that bad, but that goes for both of them. Don’t believe in Bobby Petrino.
Pick: Mississippi State +5 (–110). 11.26 units to win 10.24.
Georgia Tech at NC State
Movelor barely has Georgia Tech in its top 25 and it still likes the Yellow Jackets to cover here by a full touchdown. NC State sucks. I’m sorry, but they suck.
Pick: Georgia Tech –5 (–110). 11.77 units to win 10.23.
Wake Forest at Florida State
What in Mike Norvell’s history at FSU suggests the Seminoles will rally in the face of adversity?
Pick: Wake Forest +10.5 (–110). 11.26 units to win 10.24.
Washington State at Oregon State
I’m not sure there’s enough fuel in Oregon State’s tank to produce any sort of interim jolt. Meanwhile, Washington State’s quietly been rounding into form. It’s Washington State form, but that’s still form.
Pick: Washington State –3.5 (–115). 11.77 units to win 10.23.
Oklahoma at Tennessee
This line implies that Oklahoma is a better football team than Tennessee. Oklahoma is a lot closer to South Carolina and Auburn than they are to the Vols.
Pick: Tennessee –2.5 (–115). 11.77 units to win 10.23.
USC at Nebraska
This line moved in the wake of Matt Rhule’s extension, and we don’t buy that the extension made any difference at all. (Fun fact: The opening line is beating the closing line so far this season. OLV > CLV?)
Pick: USC –4 (–115). 11.77 units to win 10.23.
CFP National Championship
Nothing complicated this week—short on time, and this is valuable and relatively high-probability. The portfolio’s in a good spot; we’ll get more intricate next week.
Pick: Ohio State to win +260. 7.00 units to win 18.20.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –339.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 866 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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