Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,402 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks against the spread. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
MLB futures today, soccer futures today. For unit context: We began the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio (20 per week, 4 per weekday), plus an extra 520 in reserve for hedges (still no more AL East hedging—hopefully this weekend goes well for the Rays and we can do more of that on the cheap next week). We began the season with 50 units in each of our soccer portfolios (1 per week, once a week) plus an extra 50 in reserve for hedges.
ALCS
There’s a window of value on the White Sox, and we’re going to take it (while also taking the max-value play of the day, which is still the Blue Jays). They’re in the picture in the Central race, and this flips them from a narrowly unprofitable scenario to a decently profitable one, which is especially helpful since they’re a team we have nothing down on in the World Series market.
Pick: Toronto to win +850. Medium confidence.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +4000. Medium confidence.
Premier League
At some level, what we’re doing in this top six market is betting that one of the big six won’t finish within it, and then spreading out our value amongst the best bets to crack the tier. We’re already in on Brighton and Crystal Palace, and with long-enough odds to cover a few other possibilities. Aston Villa fits the bill, appearing undervalued after their rough start. They showed some life against Man City last weekend. We’ll take the flier.
Pick: Aston Villa to finish top six +2000. Low confidence.
EFL Championship
Another top six pick here, this time Blackpool. With the Championship, there’s only really a big five right now—the five teams who’ve played in the EPL in the last three years. That leaves a spot open even if all five crack the playoff cut line, which isn’t a sure bet. Blackpool isn’t the most likely to claim that sixth spot, but they’re flashing the best value, and we’ll take them for this week.
Pick: Blackpool to finish top six +1200. Low confidence.
