Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,120 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
Here’s the context on each market today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 91–63–4, we’re up 19.91 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –110).
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 82.09 units, or 10.9%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 5–7, and 5–5 on games involving at least one FBS team.
Arizona @ Chicago (NL)
We don’t love this, partially because it’s at the last minute, but it fits our parameters and that is exceedingly rare in September. Those parameters built most of our season so far. We’re going to trust them in this one.
Pick: Arizona to win –116. Low confidence. (Gallen and Taillon must start.)
ALCS
We continue to see great value on the Twins, who still get to play that Wild Card Series at home. They’re among our top options in the American League, and we don’t love that, but we’re optimistic about the leverage potential, especially with the Blue Jays another of our hopes.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1400. Medium confidence.
NLCS
The Brewers’ lead on the Cubs is bigger than it looks, sitting at three games now in the loss column. It’s not overwhelming, but that’s significant.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1400. Medium confidence.
Illinois @ Kansas
Here’s how I look at this game: We know Lance Leipold and Bret Bielema can build programs and coach. We know Illinois should be taking a step back this year. That step back would have to be six or seven points to justify this line. Give us the road underdog in a game where we think Illinois will cause some problems for the Jayhawk offense.
Pick: Illinois +3.5 (–105). Low confidence.
