Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 503 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Three picks today. All baseball.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
St. Louis @ Pittsburgh
The first three months of Paul Goldschmidt’s time in St. Louis went badly. June was especially rough, as his 57 wRC+ over the month left him a below-average hitter (97 wRC+) as the season turned to its latter half.
But the first baseman has heated back up. While he’s still not the hitter who posted wRC+’s above 140 in five of six years before coming to St. Louis, he’s at a 128 in the metric since July began. It isn’t what the Cardinals want yet. But so far, it’s been enough.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Milwaukee
Last night felt like the formal announcement that the Kyle Schwarber folks expected after 2016 had arrived, as he turned on a high fastball from a left-handed reliever and deposited it way off in the Wisconsin night for a grand slam. It brought his wRC+ up to 115, on par with last year’s, and that’s on the heels of a BABIP 36 points lower than its 2018 equivalent.
Since the Trade Deadline, Schwarber has rocked baseballs, posting a 180 wRC+ and an absurd .722 slugging percentage. He’s hitting a home run every 10.6 plate appearances over that stretch. And after sitting a decent amount in July against lefties, he’s getting opportunities against them again. The latest of which ended with quite the grand slam.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win (-113). Low confidence.
Detroit @ Oakland
It’s tempting to be overly cautious following Spencer Turnbull’s last three starts. In them, he’s lasted just over four innings on average, allowed 15 earned runs, and walked eight while only striking out ten.
But it’s likely an aberration.
Turnbull’s velocity hasn’t dropped. His FIP in the last start, a six-run affair against the Twins, was actually better than his season average in the metric. Yes, they’ve been a few bad outings. But that doesn’t mean the rookie’s done for.
Pick: Detroit +1.5 (+130). Low confidence.
