Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,008 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
We’re getting to a point in the season where it may be worthwhile to focus on futures at a daily level. As always, odds for those come from Bovada rather than the Vegas Consensus (due to availability). But first…
Milwaukee @ Cleveland
Corbin Burnes isn’t getting enough attention. With a 2.45 FIP over seven appearances (four of which were starts), Burnes is tied for the team lead in fWAR despite throwing nine fewer innings than the co-leader, Brandon Woodruff.
It’s likely we’ll see at least some regression from Burnes—his xwOBA’s a good chunk worse than his wOBA—but he still looks undervalued here.
Pick: Milwaukee +1.5 (-160). Low confidence.
Philadelphia @ New York (NL)
Jake Arrieta was terrible his last time out, recording just four outs while allowing six hits, three walks, and seven earned runs. It hasn’t been a good season for the big man, as his 6.49 ERA is currently weighing down an otherwise-good Phillies rotation.
There’s some hope for him to figure it out, though. His FIP’s only 4.88, the result of a .342 BABIP and 62.2% LOB rate that likely are at least somewhat thanks to bad luck.
The Phillies’ bullpen is likely gassed after an extra-innings victory yesterday, but so is that of the Mets. With the wind blowing in at Citi Field, tonight may well be a night Arrieta at least gets back to serviceability.
Pick: Philadelphia +1.5 (-165). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Oakland
The A’s return to play today after a coronavirus-induced layoff. They’ll likely still be without Marcus Semien, and they’re facing a very good Padres team.
Still, these odds seem to be overweighting the possibility of rust.
Pick: Oakland to win (-135). Low confidence.
Futures
The Phillies are within two and a half games of the Braves in the NL East entering this weekend. They currently boast the fifth-best record in the National League. They have a solid top of the rotation, some good bats, and a good enough chance of passing the Braves (or falling into sixth or seventh in the NL) that the currently-projected gauntlet of facing the Padres followed by the Dodgers shouldn’t scare you away just yet. With the Braves dealing with a doubleheader against the Nationals today and Patrick Corbin on Sunday, it isn’t inconceivable that the Phil’s could pick up half a game or more over the long weekend. If they do, the race is on.
Pick: Philadelphia to win NLCS +1600. Low confidence.
