Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,522 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% across 871 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
MLB futures and soccer futures today, and we’re doubling up on the latter after missing them last week. Unit context: We started the MLB season with 520 units available to bet on our two-bets-a-day, five-days-a-week cadence, plus another 520 available in reserve for hedges. We started the soccer seasons with 50 units available for each league we’re betting on, set to be bet on a one-bet-a-day, one-day-a-week cadence, with another 50 available in reserve for hedges.
NLCS
All we probably need from the Mets is one win this weekend. Two would nearly put the division away, effectively locking New York into the 2-seed, which is a favorable path given the other three best teams in the NL will all be on the 1/4/5 side of the bracket, provided the Padres don’t mess this up.
Pick: New York to win +275. Medium confidence.
Pick: New York to win +275. Medium confidence.
Premier League
There’s a lot of season left, which is a relief for Leicester, whose start has been atrocious. At these odds, the Foxes only need to be one-in-six likely to recover and get back to the top half for the play to be positive-value. That’s a low enough threshold for us.
On the other side, Newcastle’s just barely across the middle of the table right now, with their game in hand over Leeds arguably the only thing keeping them there. The club finished last year strong, but they’ve got their share of issues.
Pick: Newcastle United to finish bottom half +210. Low confidence.
Pick: Leicester City to finish top half +550. Low confidence.
EFL Championship
We’re going for a mixture of value and anchoring here, with our inclination fairly strong that either Norwich or Sheffield United will win this league. They’re the only two we’ve doubled up on so far, with a promotion future on each and a league title future on each. These are part of an attempt to keep some high-probability chips in a high-upside assortment.
On the upside side, Bristol’s a believable top six finisher, having started the year strong enough and enjoying the benefit of a weak start by West Brom making it likelier there are two top six spots up for the taking, rather than just one (in addition to Norwich and Sheffield, both Burnley and Watford are looking fine to at least nab a play-off spot).
Pick: Norwich City to be promoted +100. Low confidence.
Pick: Bristol City to finish top six +600. Low confidence.
