Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,397 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
MLB and soccer futures today. For unit context, we started the MLB portfolio with 520 units available to bet and 520 more in reserve, should we need them for hedging down the line. We have yet to tap into the hedging units. For soccer, we started each portfolio with 50 units available to bet and 50 more in reserve, should we need them for hedging down the line. No hedging there yet either.
ALCS
So, I think our best move at this stage is to keep piling into individual high-upside routes, with no new opportunities present to erase downside. Within that, the best pure value move would be to pile on Tampa Bay in the ALCS and Atlanta in the World Series, but we do want some level of diversity, so what we’re going to do, at least for today, is hit two on the value tier right below those. One is the Mariners, who have more or less a 2-in-3 chance of either playing the Wild Card Series at home or playing the Wild Card Series against whoever wins the AL Central. Neither of those would guarantee them passage to the ALDS, and the ALDS will be tough for everyone, but they’re good routes, and this is a good team, and that makes this a good play.
Pick: Seattle to win +1200. Medium confidence.
World Series
As we said yesterday, the Padres remain immensely talented. The argument for them goes something like, “Manny Machado. Juan Soto. Yu Darvish. Joe Musgrove.”
It’s a pretty good argument.
Pick: San Diego to win +2500. Medium confidence.
Premier League
Things have been rather mediocre so far this season for Palace. Through five matches, they only possess five points, leaving them squarely in the bottom half. There is nothing special about what Crystal Palace is doing or has done. And yet.
The Eagles have already hosted Arsenal. They’ve already gone to Liverpool and Manchester City. They’ve only gotten one point through those three matches—they took a draw against the Reds—but having those out of the way is more than their peers can say. They’re hanging around. They’re a surprise win at Newcastle tomorrow away from the top half. They’re the best value we’re seeing today in these markets.
Pick: Crystal Palace to finish top six +1200. Low confidence.
EFL Championship
It’s very early, but to give an idea of where our portfolio in this league stands: We have two picks down in the league-winner market, with Watford at 6.5-to-1 and Norwich now at 5-to-1. We also have one pick in the promotion market, on Sheffield United at 3.5-to-1. Where that leaves us is that if any of those three win the league, we profit across those picks (our others in the portfolio are all in the relegation markets). Meanwhile, we have enough upside on Norwich and Watford that we could slide in another bet on a Burnley or a West Brom and further bulk up our probability, and the 3.5-to-1 on Sheffield to be promoted gives us a head start should we decide to hit them in the winner market as well.
Pick: Norwich to win +500. Low confidence.
