Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,258 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.2% across 1,695 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, today’s MLB futures, and a little college football for tonight. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 99–75–5, we’re up 15.35 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –110). Today, we try again for number 100.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 95.48 units, or 12.7%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 19–19, and 19–17 on games involving at least one FBS team. We’re down 1.68 units, and down 4%. That isn’t great, but we went 7–1 last week and are off to a 2–0 start this week.
Houston @ Arizona
Zac Gallen is one of the best pitchers alive, held back in part numerically by his willingness to eat innings. We like him to clinch tonight, even facing a good Astros lineup. The Astros aren’t quite what they were, and José Urquidy isn’t having a great year, and there’s some disarray with that roster right now. Just a lot going on. We’re taking the worse team as a favorite, but this is the final weekend of the regular season. It’s going to be weird.
Pick: Arizona to win –125. Low confidence. (Urquidy and Gallen must start.)
World Series
We’re getting aggressive here and putting 16 units down on this. We just never see positive value on the Dodgers, so when it’s there, we grab it, even if it’s narrow like it is today. This still leaves the Dodgers winning the World Series as a bad outcome, but it’s not as bad as it was before today. We’ll check back tomorrow to reassess the situation.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +475. Medium confidence. x8
Louisville @ NC State
We understand the criticism with Louisville, and we will concede that they are suspiciously both a medium team in terms of results and an inconsistent team on the field. This isn’t that. This is NC State being worse than I think people realize. Give us the Cards.
Pick: Louisville –3 (–120). Low confidence.
