Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 560 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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One pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
MLB
Miami @ Philadelphia
Among the intermittent bright spots for the Marlins franchise this year was the strong sophomore campaign of Pablo López. Over 107 innings, López has a 4.39 FIP, bringing his career FIP to 4.43. It isn’t great for an ace, but for a 23-year-old filling in a rotation, it’s solid, and it’s something to build upon.
Pick: Miami +1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Oakland @ Seattle
One of the greatest sources of curiosity entering the MLB playoffs is the Oakland pitching staff. The bullpen is good. The rotation is suspect. But sometimes, the rotation is great.
Mike Fiers has thrown seven of more shutout innings four times this year. He’s also failed to make it out of the second inning three times. One of the former happened his last time out. Two of the latter happened the two outings before that.
Pick: Seattle +1.5 (+111). Low confidence.
College Football
Arizona State @ Cal
I’ve been ripping on Cal a lot, so to their credit, they have a solid defense. SP+ rates it the 21st-best in the nation. But Arizona State’s is rated better (16th), and between two unsightly offenses, the Sun Devils’ is the more palatable (85th, compared to 92nd). It’s been a nice start for Cal, but it won’t be at all surprising if it ends tonight.
Pick: Arizona State to win (+170). Low confidence.
