Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,058 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
We’ve got a college football pick for tonight, and we’ve got some MLB Futures. As always, the MLB Futures odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a reliably current Vegas Consensus online. First, though…
Miami @ New York (AL)
The Marlins have a whole lot to play for. The Yankees? Not so much. They’re pretty locked into the AL’s fifth seed. Don’t expect to see the Yanks’ best bullpen arms if this is close, and don’t be surprised if they rest a guy or two.
Pick: Miami to win +162. Low confidence.
Game 2: Milwaukee @ St. Louis
The Brewers are in a dangerous spot, having used a lot of their bullpen yesterday when Corbin Burnes left the game early, and sitting on the verge of playoff elimination. Importantly, neither Josh Hader nor Devin Williams pitched yesterday, which—combined with the Daniel Ponce de Leon starting Game 2 for the Cardinals—makes this line favorable.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -108. Low confidence.
MLB Futures
As with all futures at this point in the season, check if this helps create paths to profitability in your portfolio (or if it helps narrow paths to loss) before placing these. The value’s there with each, though—for the Twins, the growing prospect of avoiding the Yankees in the first round is encouraging, while Atlanta benefits from one of the better possible seven-seeds—the Brewers—taking a loss yesterday.
Pick: Atlanta to win NLCS +600. Low confidence.
Pick: Minnesota to win ALCS +600. Low confidence.
Middle Tennessee State @ UTSA
UTSA’s the better team here, but not by this much, leaving one to wonder whether they’re getting too much love because of a) a perceived home field advantage, b) their 2-0 record compared to MTSU’s 0-2, or c) the late scheduling of this game. Whatever the reason, it’s likely being overblown.
Pick: Middle Tennessee State +6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
