Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,546 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just futures today, and the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
ALCS
After staggering and stumbling for a month and a half, the Red Sox have pulled it together, winning seven straight to emerge, at least temporarily, three games ahead of the playoff tiebreaker line. It’s a big weekend ahead—three at home against the Yankees—but next week looks favorable, with six straight on the road against the Orioles and Nationals. Are they safe? Not entirely. But at these odds, they don’t have to be.
Pick: Boston to win +725. Low confidence.
NLCS
Freddy Peralta has returned successfully from his little IL breather, and while questions linger about how the Milwaukee rotation will hold up as the innings continue to mount, those questions are there for just about every team at this point. They’re getting a little odds bump right now, possibly because the Cardinals wrecked them this week and the remaining schedule (home against the Mets, on the road against the Cardinals and Dodgers) is scary, but they’re seven losses ahead in the division with nine games left to play. They should clinch this weekend, and even if they don’t, they’re a long way from being in trouble (also, they’ve locked up NLDS home field advantage if they do win the division).
Pick: Milwaukee to win +330. Low confidence.
