Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,438 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% across 790 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Just MLB futures today. We’ll sneak this week’s soccer ones in sometime in the next few days (most likely Monday). Taking advantage of that international break. For unit context: We started the MLB season with 520 units available to bet on our two-bets-a-day, five-days-a-week cadence, plus another 520 available in reserve for hedges.
ALCS
We still like the Mariners, even if the value’s not outrageous. This puts them ahead of Atlanta on our upside list, which we’re comfortable with, given Atlanta’s looking likely to be a Wild Card just like Seattle at this stage.
Seattle to win +900. Medium confidence.
World Series
FanGraphs actually has the Mets as the favorite at this stage, even with only about a 75% chance of winning their division and getting the effectively accompanying first-round bye. That underscores how much better the Mets are than the Dodgers on paper, especially when you’re working with playoff rotations.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +550. Medium confidence.
