Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 535 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Texas @ Oakland
It’s one of the final starts of Mike Minor’s season, and what a season it’s been. The lefty, in his second year in Arlington, has a 3.33 ERA, and his 4.08 FIP isn’t too shabby either. It’s not Cy Young stuff, but 4.2 fWAR is nothing to sneeze at. As the Rangers open a new park next year, he might get an added benefit from pitching in a climate-controlled environment.
Pick: Texas to win (+175). Low confidence.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100). Low confidence.
