Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,033 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Another future today, and the line for that, as usual, is coming from Bovada due to the absence of a good Vegas Consensus. Before that, though…
Cleveland @ Detroit
Last night, Cleveland’s offense broke out a little, crossing the plate ten times on the back of José Ramírez’s four-hit, two-homer game.
The raw numbers—park factor, starting pitcher, offensive ratings—indicate more of the same tonight.
Pick: Over 8.5 +100. Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ Colorado
It’s a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Joc Pederson is still on the bereavement list. A.J. Pollock is dealing with a tight hamstring.
Even if all of that makes the Dodgers a full run worse, the odds are still favorable on this one. Be cautious, but it appears the impact of the short-handedness is being overestimated by the market.
Pick: Los Angeles to win -220. Low confidence.
Future
Atlanta isn’t out of the woods in their division race, leading the Marlins by only two in the loss column. Still, they’ve got one of the best offenses in the game, and banged up as it is, their pitching staff is better than that of the Cubs. Considering they wouldn’t have to play the Dodgers or Padres until the NLCS at the earliest, there’s value here.
Pick: Atlanta to win World Series +1400. Low confidence.
