Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,147 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.2% across 1,622 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, two MLB futures, and a college football pick against the spread. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 95–66–4, we’re up 20.67 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –110).
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 94.80 units, or 12.6%. We normally take the weekend off, but with the Rays–Orioles series swinging the situation so quickly, we’re at least going to take a look at futures tomorrow and Sunday. (We looked at using our Rays leverage to hedge today, but it doesn’t quite make sense yet, and the value would be so bad that if we’re going to do it, we want to do it all the way.)
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 8–14, and 8–12 on games involving at least one FBS team. We’re down 6.77 units, and down 31%.
Philadelphia @ St. Louis
There isn’t a lot of value out there today, but we have a few options to choose from involving non-playoff teams. In this case, Zack Thompson has pitched pretty well in his starts so far, while Aaron Nola’s been struggling his last couple times out there. Against a decently tough Cardinals lineup, that’s a scary proposition for the Phillies, who are only 5–8 on the month of September. We’re valuing recency pretty highly here, but we’d see value on this even without that piece.
Pick: St. Louis to win +126. Low confidence. (Nola and Thompson must start.)
NLCS
The Giants had a great day yesterday, seeing every team around them in the Wild Card picture—the Marlins, the Diamondbacks, the Reds—lose. The one dark spot? The Giants themselves were rained out, so they’ll have to play a doubleheader tomorrow against the Rockies. Even so, the Giants now lead the Wild Card race in the loss column by a game, and they have by far the easiest draw this weekend of the four teams fighting for that spot, playing Colorado rather than the Cubs, Dodgers, or Mets. Yet again this season, we love the value on the Giants.
Pick: San Francisco to win +4500. Medium confidence.
World Series
It’s the same story here. The value is too good to pass up, even if the odds aren’t quite what the pennant market implies it could be here. Usually, we see higher World Series value than pennant value on NL teams.
Pick: San Francisco to win +8000. Medium confidence.
Utah State @ Air Force
Movelor and SP+ are in agreement that Air Force is better enough than Utah State for this line to be another field goal or so in Air Force’s favor. Why isn’t it? I think it’s that Utah State played Iowa tough and put up 78 against Idaho State. Idaho State, though, is a very bad FCS team, even if they play in a good FCS conference, and Iowa’s offense remains uninspiring. Air Force might not be lighting the world on fire so far this year, but there are some indications Movelor is undervaluing Sam Houston (it has the Bearkats 119th in the FBS despite Sam Houston playing both BYU and Air Force within two scores), which may be holding Air Force back. In other words? We don’t see anything pointing in Utah State’s favor here, but we understand why the market might. We like that situation well enough to make this our play out of the Friday night options.
Pick: Air Force –9.5 (–110). Low confidence.
