Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,014 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Another future today, and the line from that will come from Bovada rather than a Vegas Consensus. Before that, though…
Game 1: Baltimore @ New York (AL)
Gerrit Cole’s year has not gone great. Yes, he has a 3.63 ERA, but that’s not what the Yankees wanted out of him, and his 4.66 FIP is concerning. He’s been hit harder than almost anyone in the league. He’s allowed almost a home run and a half per start. He’s expressed concern that he’s tipping his pitches.
It’s true that Cole’s performance has been concerning. It’s also true that he’s still a good pitcher. Part of his home run rate might be bad luck—his HR/FB ratio is the second-highest among qualified starters. Beyond that, this feels like a must-win game to the Yankees, and the bullpen’s fresh. Don’t expect them to let it get away.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -260. Low confidence.
New York (NL) @ Buffalo
Meanwhile, upstate, Jacob deGrom brings his 1.69 ERA to the mound.
deGrom gets a lot of credit for being dominant. He doesn’t get enough credit for being a workhorse. He’s thrown 200 or more innings each of the last three seasons. He’s averaging six innings a start this year.
The fact the Mets have been unable, so far, to build around deGrom is akin to the Angels’ failures to win with Mike Trout on the malpractice scale. Regardless of broader organizational failings, though, deGrom on the mound means a win is likely. In tonight’s case, very likely.
Pick: New York (NL) to win -200. Low confidence.
Detroit @ Chicago (AL)
Lucas Giolito is not as good as Shane Bieber. Beyond that, though, in the American League, it’s hard to find anyone who’s been better than him. His ERA’s only two points poorer than Zack Greinke’s. His FIP’s only eight points worse than Dylan Bundy’s. Bieber’s wholly deserving of the Cy Young, but Giolito’s going to deserve every second-place vote he gets. And he might help the White Sox win a pennant along the way.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win -280. Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Colorado
Griffin Canning can only get away with a 5.30 FIP for so long. To date, he’s only pitched at relatively pitcher-friendly ballparks: Angel Stadium, the Oakland Coliseum, and whatever they’re calling that airplane hangar down in Arlington.
Tonight, he’s pitching at Coors Field against a Rockies lineup trying to hold onto the edge of a playoff race.
Look out.
Pick: Colorado to win -135. Low confidence.
Future
The Braves are in some trouble. The Phillies and Marlins are within striking distance. Max Fried is on the Injured List. Mike Soroka is out all year. No other starters are any good.
Still, this is a decent value play, with Fried not unlikely to return, Cole Hamels a possible last-minute October addition, and an offense that—as was recently displayed—can score a whole bunch of runs. Personally, it helps shore up the portfolio, with something like a 20% eROI.
Pick: Atlanta to win World Series +1500. Low confidence.
