Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,523 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have some futures today, and the odds for those come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Toronto @ Baltimore
Robbie Ray has now gone eight straight starts without either A) pitching fewer than six innings or B) allowing more than two runs.
Expect that to continue tonight.
Pick: Toronto -1.5 (-175). Low confidence.
ALCS
On the topic of the Blue Jays: This looked good even before the news of Chris Sale’s positive Covid test came out. If Sale is at all set back for the Wild Card Game (in which there’s almost a 50% chance the Blue Jays would face him if they made it), it helps Toronto.
Looking at the portfolio as a whole, this makes the Blue Jays winning the pennant a blanket profitable route for us in the LCS/World Series portion of things, though that may be temporary, as it’s a narrow profit in scenarios in which the Giants or Padres win the NL.
Pick: Toronto to win +1600. Low confidence.
NL East
On the division half, we’re rather invested in the Phillies and Dodgers. Taking this one and the next one helps shore up those potential losses while still leaving us profitable on the division side in almost all scenarios in which the Dodgers do win the West.
Pick: Atlanta to win -350. Medium confidence.
NL West
This, like the last one, isn’t high value, but it’s positive value. The Giants are finally the consensus favorites in the West. FanGraphs has come around, so we will too.
Pick: San Francisco to win -125. Medium confidence.
