Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,089 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 4% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 4%’s into a whole lot more than 4% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
We’ll start with the Rays/Yankees game, then move into college football picks for tomorrow.
Tampa Bay vs. New York (AL)
This game could get out of control, but both teams have enough pitching that they could also piece their way through it even with exhausted arms, so I’m staying away from the over. On the whole, the Yankees have a lot of chips in on Gerrit Cole. More than the Rays have in on any one pitcher. And while there are few human beings alive you’d rather put your chips on in this situation than Cole, starters on three days’ rest are not what they are on normal rest in this day and age. This is probably the best play involving the game.
Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-130). Low confidence.
Now, college football.
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt
There’s an unfortunate reality in the SEC in which though South Carolina’s performed respectably through two weeks, they’re also at a very real risk of an absolute disaster of a season. There’s a fortunate reality that Vanderbilt is terrible, especially on offense, which bodes well for the Gamecocks’ strong-by-national-standards defense.
Pick: South Carolina -13.5 (-115). Low confidence.
East Carolina @ South Florida
Man, this is ugly. But USF’s defense is decent, and ECU’s is bad enough that the Bulls should score enough points to get a win by at least a touchdown or so.
Pick: South Florida -4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Marshall @ Western Kentucky
The Jeff Brohm days at WKU are long gone. This Hilltoppers are gonna struggle to score. But the defense should do enough to keep things interesting in Bowling Green.
Pick: Western Kentucky +7 (-110). Low confidence.
