Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,603 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.0% isn’t positive, but it’s not negative, and we do project a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have some futures today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. We also have a college football play, which we’ll put in after all the baseball. It’s a busy day. First, today’s picks:
Chicago (AL) @ Houston
We’ve been high on overs, but this is one where the under makes sense, and with a wide spread between FanGraphs’s depth charts and ZiPs on the win probability, the angle in which a low-scoring game favors the Sox is a favorable one.
The White Sox can’t hang with the Astros in a slugfest. They have bats, but the Astros have bats. In a year or two? Sure. But not right now.
Similarly, the Astros don’t have the bullpen to close things out in a tight one like the White Sox do. Liam Hendriks is Josh Hader-esque in quality. Craig Kimbrel has struggled, but he’s done this thing before. The tighter it is late, the more it leans towards the visitors.
Pick: Parlay – Chicago to win, Under 8 (+281). Low confidence.
Atlanta @ Milwaukee
Don’t sleep on Charlie Morton, and if you buy the idea that experience helps, he’s got experience.
Pick: Atlanta to win +129. Low confidence.
Boston @ Tampa Bay
Chris Sale may not be Chris Sale right now, but there are a lot of questions about Shane Baz, and as Alex Cora showed on Tuesday, he won’t leave him in too long if the Red Sox have a lead.
On that note, we’re high on overs right now, which are unfortunately 0-3-1 so far in the playoffs. One factor that helps us here is that the road team winning means the home team bats once more (and yes, we think that even without Martinez, the Red Sox should be an outright favorite).
Pick: Boston to win +119. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100). Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ San Francisco
At these odds, this is a helpful play for our assortment today, and again, we think the market is aiming too low. Logan Webb is probably undervalued, but so is the Giants offense.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+105). Low confidence.
Now, the futures:
ALCS
The Astros should be the AL favorites, the Astros are not the AL favorites in the market, these are good odds on the Astros.
Pick: Houston to win +200. Medium confidence.
ALDS: Houston vs. Chicago
That said about the Astros, they’re paradoxically overvalued in this story, which could well flip in the White Sox’ favor after today (the takeaway here is that the Rays seem overvalued, but I have said that a number of times this year and then they’ve laughed in the face of my existence, so LOW CONFIDENCE HERE).
Pick: Chicago to win +235. Low confidence.
And finally, the college football:
Stanford @ Arizona State
Could Arizona State make the College Football Playoff? They have a decent shot. SP+, at least as of last week (before the UCLA win, so I think this holds) had them a top-ten team, and while their margin for error is probably nonexistent, they have a clear path.
Anyway, Stanford has caused us problems at times and caused us great joy at times so far this year. Here’s hoping we take the lead against them.
Pick: Arizona State -13.5 (-110). Low confidence.
