Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,319 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 1,739 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
MLB futures, NFL futures, and some football tonight at both the professional and the college level. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 110.59 units, or 14.7%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 25–23–1, and 25–21–1 on games involving at least one FBS team. We’re down 0.18 units and down 0.4%. That isn’t great, but we’ve been much better the last two weeks, so if you believe in trends, they’re positive. Trying to get into profitability tonight.
Division Series: Baltimore vs. Texas
We’re only doubling up on this today, rather than tripling up like we did yesterday. We have big vulnerabilities on the Rangers, but we aren’t as confident in their value here as we were 24 hours ago. FanGraphs added the ZiPS probabilities at some point after we worked through yesterday’s bets, and they’re very different from the core FanGraphs model, looking much more favorably upon the Orioles. This is enough to cause us to hesitate, because we aren’t ready yet to hedge outright.
Pick: Texas to win +108. Medium confidence.
Pick: Texas to win +108. Medium confidence.
Division Series: Atlanta vs. Philadelphia
Both models we reference do agree that the Phillies have the value at this price, and we’ll take it. We want more Division Series plays than just those on the Rangers, and this seems to be the one area of agreement.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +160. Medium confidence.
World Series
Even with that agreement, though, there’s value on Atlanta in this market, and that still helps us. We’re trying to prepare for every scenario, now that the number of scenarios is more manageable. The dangerous ones are those where the Dodgers, Rangers, and Astros all make the LCS. Building up our Braves and Astros upside helps give us leverage in those to hedge against the worst cases.
Pick: Atlanta to win +310. Medium confidence.
ALCS
To that same end, there’s value here as well. We prefer the Twins (if the Twins or Orioles win the pennant, our portfolio is profitable no matter what), but this helps use that leverage to protect us, and again, it comes with some positive value. It’s a bet we’d make independently of our portfolio.
Pick: Houston to win +190. Medium confidence.
Cornell @ Harvard
Movelor’s on a little roll, but Movelor is extremely close to tonight’s lines, with the best advantage we can find against the spread a meaningless 1.8 points. So, we’re looking at totals, and we’re starting in the Ivy League. All three of Harvard’s games have gone over this mark. Only two of Cornell’s three games have exceeded it. What encourages us is that Harvard’s offense looks perfectly capable, and Harvard’s defense is suspect. We don’t have any faith in Cornell, but we expect Harvard to let this be a high-scoring night. Cornell should be able to find the endzone enough to do their part.
Pick: Over 52 (–115). Low confidence.
Nebraska @ Illinois
In this one, we do think Nebraska pulls this towards a low-scoring game, but Illinois has too many defensive issues for the game to actually be this low-scoring. The even number is nice, too. As is that –105.
Pick: Over 42 (–105). Low confidence.
