Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,082 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 4% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 4%’s into a whole lot more than 4% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
All futures today. Odds from Bovada due to the absence of a current Vegas Consensus for these.
NL Wild Card Series: Miami @ Chicago (NL)
The Cubs are heavy favorites to get through today. Somewhere slightly above 70%. Yu Darvish is that good. But tomorrow’s odds don’t look great. Jon Lester might go out and turn in a heroic, old-man performance. He might get rocked. The more likely result is somewhere in between—a few good innings, a few bad innings, and an exit in the 5th or so while the broadcasters murmur about whether Kyle Hendricks is available on two days’ rest.
Two of Lester’s final four starts were great: Six-inning outings allowing no runs, one in which he was legitimately dominant, with eight strikeouts and only two walks. One of the final four starts was fine: Five innings, two runs, one strikeout, some BABIP luck (92.6 mph average exit velocity, .188 BABIP). One of the final four—the final one—was rough: Three and two-thirds innings, seven earned runs, three walks.
Lester’s FIP on the season wound up at 5.14 over twelve starts. That’s not great, and unfortunately for the Cubs, it’s statistically more predictive than David Ross’s gut.
Pick: Miami to win -175. Low confidence.
NLCS
The best part, for Atlanta, of yesterday’s neat and tidy elimination of the Reds was Ian Anderson. Six shutout innings. Nine strikeouts. Only two walks. If Anderson continues to pitch like this, or even half as good as this, the one-two punch of him and Max Fried is among the best in the postseason. With a favorable draw now that they’re past Cincinnati, there’s a lot of value out there on Atlanta.
Pick: Atlanta to win +400. Low confidence.
World Series
For the first time all year, there’s value to be had on a Dodgers future. The 45%-ish probability the Cardinals beat the Padres today, combined with the other-level nature of the Los Angeles roster, has the Dodgers at a 29.1% probability, per FanGraphs, of winning it all. That’s not particularly likely, but it’s far and away the best number out there, and against these odds it yields a narrowly positive eROI (5%), making it a useful hedge if your portfolio looks like that of these picks.
On the other side of the bracket, let’s talk about Houston’s pitching. Framber Valdez turned in five shutout innings against the Twins in Game One, striking out five while walking only two. In Game Two, Jose Urquidy worked through four and a third while allowing just one to score, posting a single-game FIP of 3.19. Cristian Javier worked three in that game, walking two but allowing no hits. Lance McCullers Jr. did not need to see the mound. All told, of the Astros’ five starting pitching options, Zack Greinke had the worst Wild Card Series FIP, at 4.94. Urquidy and Javier are the biggest unknowns, but the early returns, at least, are good. If Zack Greinke’s of relative concern to Zack Greinke’s own team, that team’s in a pretty good spot.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +260. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win +1200. Low confidence.
