Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,135 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 2%’s into a whole lot more than 2% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
One for the World Series, one for college football tonight.
Los Angeles vs. Tampa Bay
Charlie Morton has something of a reputation as a postseason master. It isn’t undeserved. Over 57 career playoff innings, the veteran’s posted a 2.84 ERA, striking out 61 while walking only 21.
This is well and good, but paying too much attention to it runs the risk of underappreciating his regular season success. Over Morton’s career, he has a 3.79 FIP in the regular season, and the last time he posted a FIP above that over a season was back in 2015. Even this year, when his ERA was a middling 4.74, he suffered a .355 BABIP, landing with a FIP down at 3.45.
In other words, Charlie Morton isn’t just good in the playoffs. He’s just good.
Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-125). Low confidence.
Tulsa @ South Florida
Tulsa has only played twice this year, the last time coming twenty days ago when they knocked off UCF in the Bounce House (did not realize that was its official name now). South Florida has played five times, suffering just one postponement, which came nearly a month back. Will this matter? Will Tulsa be fresh? Will USF be in a groove?
We don’t know. It’s trite, but these really are unprecedented times, and that goes for college football teams responding to layoffs as much as anything else.
It’s not uncommon for sports betting markets to react noticeably to speculation surrounding noise. It’s possible some of that’s happening here. Whether that’s the case or not, though, the raw numbers have this a one-possession game, making it not only tonight’s best play, but one of the weekend’s better options.
Pick: South Florida +11 (-110). Low confidence.
