Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,578 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.3% isn’t much, but it’s positive, and you can do things with positive.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One future today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Iowa @ Maryland
Can Maryland put points on the board against Iowa’s outstanding defense? I’m not sure. But an Iowa offense that’s routinely struggled, playing in front of a fired-up crowd on a Friday night? That’s a recipe for trouble for the Hawkeyes. With Penn State coming to Iowa City next week, there’s a trap-game element here that doesn’t hurt either. The narrative doesn’t seem to think much of Maryland. We’ll see if Iowa took the bait.
Pick: Maryland +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
BYU @ Utah State
Will Jaren Hall start for BYU? Does it matter?
The answer to the first of those is still unclear. The answer to the second leans towards, “No.” BYU’s just too good, and the Hall uncertainty discount is too high here, even in what should be a rollicking atmosphere.
Pick: BYU -9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Seattle
I’m not sure about Marco Gonzales, which is why this is low confidence, but he figures to be on the shortest of leashes, and with the Orioles doing whatever it is the Orioles just did to the Red Sox, the Mariners suddenly control their fate. What a moment in Seattle.
Pick: Seattle to win -160. Low confidence.
NLCS
I don’t know why this line exists, and I especially don’t know why the odds are longer than they are for Atlanta to win the NLCS (+650), which is the exact same outcome, but…either of those sets of odds are too long, and the fact the odds didn’t move at all with Devin Williams breaking his hand just adds fuel to an already raging fire. Sure, Atlanta’s an underdog. But this is absurd.
Pick: NL East team to win +700. Low confidence.
