Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,628 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.0% isn’t amazing, but it’s not negative, and we do project a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have a future again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Boston @ Houston
Chris Sale had a rough Game 2 start, and he hasn’t been his dominant self in his brief action this year, but…he’s still a good pitcher, guys. Better than Framber Valdez. And while he’s facing a better lineup than his opponent, it’s not that much better.
Pick: Boston to win +124. Low confidence.
ALCS/NLCS Parlay
This is a pure hedge, as we shore up the bottom end of the portfolio, where our only unprofitable route is now the Dodgers beating the Astros in the World Series (though as we hedge more, things will shift around).
Pick: Houston vs. Los Angeles World Series +144. Low confidence.
And lastly, a little college football:
Marshall @ North Texas
The knock against Marshall is turnovers, but those aren’t always that predictive of themselves. North Texas is bad bad right now. Could be close. Might not be.
Pick: Marshall -11 (-110). Low confidence.
