Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,606 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% across 947 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Just MLB futures today. More on the timing in today’s notes. For unit context: We started the season with 1,040 units available for futures and hedges against those futures. Entering today, we’ve netted 14.74 units of profit, and we have 596.74 units in the bankroll, with 458 units pending. More futures tomorrow, plus this week’s college football picks.
World Series
38 units on this one, which isn’t really a hedge because it is positive value, but is kind of a hedge because there’s better value out there. We’re taking it because we expect Houston to win this Division Series, we expect them to then be a big ALCS favorite, and if they don’t win this Division Series, we still have great upside on the Mariners. This leaves us with medium-enough Astros upside that we don’t yet feel it entirely essential to place a hedge bet on the Dodgers, who are our scariest liability. We may regret that, if the Dodgers win tonight, but it’s called gambling.
Pick: Houston to win +250. Medium confidence. x19
