Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 620 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 13% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Four picks tonight, three in college basketball.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College Basketball
UIC @ Memphis
The news surrounding James Wiseman has thrown this line all over the place. With him back to playing, the line’s at 20.
Projections differ widely on Memphis, but even KenPom, which projects them as the 48th-best team in the country, has them only favored by about 13 at home here. There’s a lot of uncertainty as to how the uncertainty will affect everyone. Still, the median result here lies on the UIC side of a twenty-point Memphis victory.
Pick: UIC +20 (-110). Low confidence.
William & Mary @ American
Preseason Patriot League Player of the Year Sa’eed Nelson makes his season debut tonight after missing American’s first game. Nelson’s value, on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, can’t be overstated on a team that’s only rated the fifth-best in a poor conference. He finished last season among the nation’s top sixty in both assist rate and steal rate, and despite taking 27.1% of his team’s shots, he was in the nation’s top quartile in effective field goal percentage.
With Nelson, American is a very different team from what they are without Nelson. The team they are with him should be good enough to cover this spread 55%-60% of the time.
Pick: American -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Loyola @ Furman
Furman played a big role in the Southern Conference’s breakthrough 2018-19 season. The Paladins upset Villanova in overtime last November en route to beginning the season 12-0 (only 9-0 against Division I opponents). They’re back, and while KenPom has them only 99th after finishing last season 59th, they’ll be a factor in a tight SoCon race.
The problem for Furman is that while Loyola lost Clayton Custer and Marques Townes to graduation, they’re expected to have improved over the offseason, entering today at 92nd in KenPom’s rankings after finishing last year 131st. They might not beat Furman on the road, but they should come close.
Pick: Loyola +4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
College Football
UCF @ Tulsa
UCF’s average final total has been roughly 68 this season. The average defense they’ve faced has been ranked 69th by SP+. The average offense they’ve faced has been ranked 84th by SP+. SP+ ranks Tulsa’s offense 100th in the FBS, and its defense 60th. That indicates it’s more likely than not that 68 is not hit tonight.
Pick: Under 68.5 (-110). Low confidence.
