Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 719 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Columbia @ Bryant
Bryant is coming off a 15-point victory over Navy Monday night that boosted them to a season-high 268th in KenPom. Columbia looks to have stabilized following a rough Saturday-before-Thanksgiving showing against Rider on a neutral court.
Overall, Columbia’s the better team here, and with no word on whether SaBastian Townes or Juan Cardenas will be available tonight for the home team, the Lions are one of the best picks on the board.
Pick: Columbia +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
UT-Martin @ Central Michigan
Tennessee-Martin has a top-120 offense, yet they rate 311th overall in KenPom. Their defense, as you might have guessed, is not good. What you might not have guessed is that it’s the worst in the country. Even in their victory a week ago Wednesday over Boston University, a middling-but-not-terrible team, they allowed a brutal 1.12 points per possession. Against Central Michigan, who plays the fourth-fastest basketball in the country, a 100-point showing isn’t out of the question.
Pick: Central Michigan -10 (-110). Low confidence.
Stephen F. Austin @ Alabama
Stephen F. Austin has only one loss to their name, and has, of course, one of the best victories of the season: a road triumph over Duke.
Still, the Lumberjacks have significant flaws. They turn the ball over a lot. They get burned on three’s. They’re experienced, and deep, but they’re undersized.
SFA should cause ‘Bama a lot of trouble with their own turnover issues. Still, the underdog is getting more credit with this line than, to this point, they deserve.
Pick: Alabama -9 (-110). Low confidence.
