Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 695 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Six picks today across college football and college basketball.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College Football
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
Virginia Tech and Virginia are remarkably similar, by the numbers. Each struggles to move the ball efficiently on the ground. Each is well-rounded defensively. Virginia has had less success passing than the Hokies, but on the aggregate projects to be a slightly better team. With the game in Charlottesville, UVA should be favored to end the streak. They’re instead a two and a half-point underdog.
Virginia Tech’s defense has, to its credit, looked especially strong in their last two games, shutting out Georgia Tech and Pitt. Georgia Tech and Pitt, though, each rank firmly on the wrong side of 100 in the offensive portion of SP+. With only 130 FBS teams, roughly half of which are in the Group of Five, that’s bad. Shutouts are impressive regardless of the opponent, but there are plenty of FCS offenses who would represent a more significant test than Georgia Tech or Pitt.
This is as likely as any to be a captivating game. The teams are roughly evenly matched. The stakes are high, both emotionally and in terms of conference title implications. For our purposes, though, that doesn’t really matter. What matters is that while Virginia Tech obviously has a very good chance, Virginia’s undervalued here.
Pick: Virginia to win (+115). Low confidence.
West Virginia @ TCU
There are supposed to be storms in Fort Worth this afternoon, with the latest forecasts indicating the likelihood of one or more occurring during the game to be 50/50. Rain’s supposed to move through the area before kickoff, so conditions figure to be damp, at the very least.
It’s possible this is what’s keeping this total as low as it is. It’s possible there’s something else at work here that I’m missing. Whatever the case, this is a big gap.
West Virginia’s been better at not getting blown out lately, a shift that’s largely come from holding opponents to fewer points. Even as results have improved, though, SP+’s conception of the Mountaineer defense hasn’t really changed. Entering their game against Baylor, in which the improvement seemed to begin (also, it should be noted that positive results in three of four games isn’t really that indicative of anything), the WVU defense was rated 82nd-best in the FBS. Now, it’s 78th. As teams have swirled around them in the midst of the pack, West Virginia has held firm.
In short, don’t expect West Virginia’s defense to be any better than you currently believe it to be. Look for rain, but count on TCU’s ground attack to do enough to get points on the board regardless of climate. It’s no sure bet—it’s been quite a while since we had one of those around here—but it’s one of the better plays you can make today.
Pick: Over 43.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Arkansas State @ South Alabama
South Alabama is one of the worst teams in the FBS. They’re almost undisputedly the worst team in the Sun Belt. That isn’t an attack on the Jaguars. It’s just a statement of where things are at. And it’s important, because this line has them about a touchdown better than SP+ believes they are.
SP+, of course, is not infallible, and it’s certainly possible for it to be wrong about this one. Arkansas State has its flaws, notably its rushing defense. Still, with most metrics pointing towards a close cover by the Red Wolves, and the best metric indicating an easy cover by the Red Wolves, there’s little reason not to take the Red Wolves.
Pick: Arkansas State -11 (-110). Low confidence.
College Basketball
Southeast Missouri State @ Santa Clara
Santa Clara likes to play fast, entering this afternoon’s game with the 13th-quickest average offensive possession in the country. The pace has treated them well offensively: while held back by turnovers, a lack of second chance shots, and poor three-point shooting, the core of their game—getting good shots inside the arc and getting to the free throw line—is strong.
Southeast Missouri State doesn’t do anything too unusual as far as tempo goes. They don’t score a lot, but they do allow their opponents to do so. Santa Clara should have a field day in this one, and should control the pace effectively enough to narrowly hit the total.
Pick: Over 142 (-110). Low confidence.
Grambling State @ UC-Santa Barbara
Grambling State’s been run out of the gym a few times this year, which should make UCSB’s deliberate offense a welcome reprieve. While the Gauchos should score efficiently, the combination of a slower pace and UCSB’s penchant for fouling, Grambling State figures to keep this closer to an 11-point game than 13. That’s not a great margin for error, but on today’s board, it’s one of the best lines you can get.
Pick: Grambling State +13 (-110). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Hawaii
Even with Frankie Ferrari, Matt McCarthy, and Nate Renfro all gone, San Francisco’s off to a solid start to the year. They’ve played a light slate so far—their best result to date is an overtime home victory over Yale—which makes tonight’s trip to Hawaii a significant event. It’s one of their toughest tests of the year, and if the Dons perform well, it will be an encouraging sign for first-year coach Todd Golden’s team’s chances of hanging with Saint Mary’s and BYU in the WCC’s second tier.
Hawaii does have the tools to win, even if they’re deservedly not a favorite. This is the best Rainbow Warriors team since 2016, when Hawaii upset Cal in the NCAA Tournament’s first round. They’re tall, and strong inside defensively, though they struggle on the glass. If they can prevent second chances for the Dons, and can continue to limit three-point attempts (only 26% of their opponents’ field goal attempts have been three’s on the year, the eighth-lowest rate in Division I basketball), it could become a frustrating night for their guests.
Pick: Hawaii +4 (-110). Low confidence.
