Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,209 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. And that’s not nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Both college football and college basketball today.
College Football
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
The Pokes have fallen on hard times. They’ve lost two of their last three, and the victory in there—a two-point squeaker over Kansas State—wasn’t exactly cause for celebration.
Still, the narrative’s flipped too far. Getting blown out by your archrival who has something to prove and is significantly better than you is a rather conventional result. Texas Tech, on the other hand, has been a thorn in a lot of sides but doesn’t have much in the win column to show for it. Maybe OK State’s about to self-destruct. It’s equally likely they’ll pull it together. In the middle is something like a two-touchdown win today.
Pick: Oklahoma State -11 (-110). Low confidence.
Louisville @ Boston College
Louisville is three possessions—three points against Pitt, five points against Notre Dame, seven points against Virginia Tech—from being 6-3. Boston College’s record in one-possession games is stronger, but nothing wild: 3-2. The point is, with fairly comparable schedules, BC and Louisville don’t have all that different of results. Couple that with Louisville having a legitimately impressive offense, and Boston College having a questionable defense, and there’s value to be had here.
Pick: Louisville +1 (-110). Low confidence.
College Basketball
Alcorn State @ Kent State
I’ve never done a deep dive on home court advantage in college basketball, but my impression is that it’s variable. KenPom, which measures the effect over the last 60 conference games, has it ranging from 4.9 points (at Colorado) to 1.7 points (at Navy). I’m not sure how KenPom’s treating home court this year, but it appears he’s either treating it normally or has a small reduction. That’s fair, but it’s also cause for pause when picking home teams. No need to pause here.
Pick: Alcorn State +16.5 (-110). Low confidence.
UTSA @ UT-Rio Grande Valley
Don’t make too much of UTRGV’s 55-point showing against Texas on Wednesday. Texas’s defense is likely one of the best in the country. Instead, look at how fast the Vaqueros got Shaka Smart’s team to play. 77 possessions is a lot for Texas, even in a blowout, and signifies that UTRGV will be willing to run with UTSA, while benefitting from playing one of the weaker defenses in the University of Texas system.
Pick: Over 151 (-110). Low confidence.
Villanova vs. Virginia Tech
It’s year two for Mike White in Blacksburg, and the longtime Wofford coach has a new roster.
I’ll spare you the names (college basketball’s about the coaches, right?), but basically, Virginia Tech fans are high on a few recruits and incoming transfers. After a hit-and-miss year Virginia Tech opened with six straight wins, including a triumph over Michigan State in Maui, the Hokies should be contenders for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, and might be safely in the field by the time March begins.
No, Tech isn’t as good as Villanova, but they’ve got the shooters to hang with the Wildcats today in Connecticut. And don’t sleep on them in the ACC.
Pick: Virginia Tech +8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
