Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,205 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.3% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. And that’s not nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Both college football and college basketball today.
College Football
Iowa State @ Texas
Iowa State’s just the better team here. Better offense (narrowly). Better defense (not widely). Better coach (I’d guess we can agree on that). Yes, it’s in Austin, but in a tossup, this is the best football play of the day.
Pick: Iowa State -1 (-115). Low confidence.
College Basketball
Virginia vs. San Francisco
San Francisco isn’t what they were last year, or the year prior, and they’re at a point in the curve where that dips them into national irrelevance.
Still, Todd Golden’s a smart coach, and they’ve returned enough pieces that this isn’t a full rebuilding season. The UMass-Lowell loss was weird, but they were closer to expectations yesterday against Towson. In a game in which both teams will be content to slow it down, don’t be surprised if the Dons hang around the edge of a single-digit deficit.
Pick: San Francisco +14.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Troy vs. Western Carolina
It was a tough first year for Scott Cross at Troy, but the former UT-Arlington head man has improved a program before. We don’t really know how fast the Trojans are going to play, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Cross went back to the rather frenetic tempo he used with his former employer. Given that possibility, and given that Western Carolina’s coming off a slightly overvalued season (a quality gap within the SoCon made them appear closer to the good teams than they were), if you’re looking to take a shot today, this isn’t a bad option.
Pick: Troy to win +325. Low confidence.
Drake vs. South Dakota
Drake dispatched with Kansas State by a clean margin on Wednesday, while South Dakota got worked by Colorado.
Fortunately for the Coyotes, Colorado is mediocre by high-major standards, while K-State is outright bad.
South Dakota doesn’t return a lot of guys, but their ability level places this closer to a five-point spread than this.
Pick: South Dakota +9 (-115). Low confidence.
