Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,849 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.5% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
College basketball picks below, but first, our college football plays for the weekend (might have some futures hedges tomorrow, depending how things break tonight, but none for right now):
College Football
Missouri @ Arkansas
Mizzou’s had plenty of low points on the year—losing to Boston College, losing by four scores to Tennessee, only beating Vanderbilt by single digits—but their wins the last two weeks against South Carolina and Florida aren’t nothing, and Arkansas hasn’t exactly been a world-beater this year, isolated successes aside. The Tigers should at least keep it interesting this afternoon.
Pick: Missouri +14.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Louisiana Tech @ Rice
Neither team is bowl eligible, meaning each is just playing out the string. I’m not sure that should have this much bearing on this line, though, considering it should affect each team comparably. Louisiana Tech’s the better team, as the line reflects, but it’s better by more than this.
Pick: Louisiana Tech -4 (-105). Low confidence.
Northwestern @ Illinois
The idea with Northwestern is that Pat Fitzgerald makes sure they never take a game off. The problem with that this year is that they can play out of their minds and still not be as good as even Illinois. They’ve lost five of their last seven games by three or more scores, and while Illinois isn’t as good as those five opponents (Nebraska, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue), they aren’t terrible. Resist habit here.
Pick: Illinois -6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee
32 is a lot of points, but when Tennessee’s had opportunities, they haven’t shied away from pounding teams, and offense is their strength. Need a big first half, but the Vols should cover this.
Pick: Tennessee -32 (-110). Low confidence.
Arizona @ Arizona State
There was a while earlier this year when we were touting ASU’s playoff chances. How times have changed. But while times have changed, they’re still a solid team. Sometimes the Pac-12’s lack of talent at the top obscures that the middle is fine.
Pick: Arizona State -20.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Louisiana-Monroe @ Louisiana-Lafayette
Up until last week, Louisiana-Lafayette had an outside shot at a New Year’s Six bowl, likely sitting just outside the playoff rankings with Cincinnati at risk of not winning the AAC and the other potential Group of Five champions ranked ahead of them—San Diego State, UTSA, Houston—all facing losable games. With Houston and Cincy winning last week, it doesn’t appear there’s a path anymore. Despite that, it’s been another great season for the Ragin’ Cajuns, and it wouldn’t be shocking if they found their way into the rankings in this final pre-conference championship edition. They should win big tomorrow.
Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette -21.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Texas A&M @ LSU
The risk here seems to be that it’ll be so low-scoring that the Aggies can’t pull away. If this line was seven, maybe that’d be a reason to hesitate, but A&M could cover this even in some overtime scenarios.
Pick: Texas A&M -6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
***
College Basketball
Northern Kentucky @ DePaul
Northern Kentucky drives a slower tempo, and they do that defensively, with an attacking style that forces a lot of turnovers but leaves them susceptible to getting torched from deep. If this approach works, both in slowing down DePaul and keeping the ball out of the basket, the over’s in trouble today. On the other side, though, DePaul’s entire game is a fast-paced one, with three of their four games having easily eclipsed 75 possessions. They should be fast enough, and these defenses should be weak enough, to hit three and a half points per minute, or a total of 140.
Pick: Over 137 (-115). Medium confidence.
LSU vs. Penn State
There isn’t a whole lot Penn State does well, and while they do like to slow the game down, which can increase randomness and drive up the probability of an upset, they figure to have a really hard time doing that against LSU. To be honest, there isn’t much to like about this pick at all, which may be why the odds are understating the likelihood of a Nittany Lions upset. Value play.
Pick: Penn State to win +400. Low confidence.
