Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,385 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
College hoops for the day:
Cornell @ Monmouth
Monmouth’s been having a hard time, but the KenPom decrease per game in rating has nearly reached zero, implying water has found its level. Cornell is a fine team, but their 4-1 overall mark is misleading. Each of their wins has either come by single digits or against a non-Division I foe.
Pick: Monmouth +5.5 (-104). Low confidence.
Lindenwood @ Illinois
This seems to be a tempo disagreement, with the market expecting Illinois to get points off the break. They might do that, but to this extent? Probably not.
Pick: Lindenwood +32.5 (-106). Low confidence.
