Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,963 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
It’s another big day, with all three of college basketball, college football, and the NFL in action. Here’s how we’re doing in each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 11–9. We’re up 0.94 units and we’re up 5%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 68–69–3. We’re down 6.77 units and down 5%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 14–18–6. We’re down 5.48 units and we’re down 14%.
North Carolina vs. Arkansas
Here’s a theory for the kenpom age, and here’s what’s making us use this theory:
For a few years, in nonconference play, you could make a lot of money by looking for games with the biggest gaps between the kenpom spread and the betting spread, making sure there were no major injuries, and following kenpom blindly. That opportunity has closed, but I’m not sure kenpom has changed. I think markets have relented, and the result is fewer opportunities for those comfortable blindly trusting numbers.
If we accept that kenpom is a very good source of truth, but that the vig is large enough to make it unprofitable to blindly follow kenpom, we have a situation in which finding value relies on a lot of judgment calls. We don’t like this. Judgment calls can go well for a little bit (see: our college football performance in September), but success rarely lasts (see: our college football performance in November). What we need, then, is another objective source of value. Here’s what we’re thinking:
There’s variance around kenpom’s lines. We all understand this. Even if you make the right bet with a lot of confidence, there’s maybe a 40% chance you decisively lose, while there’s a corresponding 40% chance you decisively win. What we’re looking for, then, is something that would outsizedly impact the middle 20%—that fraction of instances in which the game is very close. What happens at the end of close games? Fouls. What comes out of fouls? Free throws.
What we’re trying—and this isn’t even the best opportunity for it today, but this bet is part judgment call (we think UNC will deal well with Arkansas’s antagonism—is finding a line in which the favorite is favored by two or three possessions and the line is close to the kenpom line, and then betting for or against the favorite based on how good or bad they are at shooting free throws. 80% of the time, it will be decided one way or the other without the free throws mattering. But in that middle 20%, if we can flip it to a 65/35 split in our favor, we can make money.
Pick: North Carolina –3.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Iowa @ Nebraska
We’ve held off for a long time, but it’s time to return to Iowa overs. Hopefully this is us selling GameStop at its peak.
Pick: Over 24.5 (–115). Low confidence.
Oregon State @ Oregon
Since losing to Washington, Oregon has been playing on another level from anyone outside the SEC and Big Ten. There’s no guarantee that will continue, but the Ducks have distanced themselves from the rest of the Pac-12, and for as much as we respect Oregon State, we think Oregon makes itself comfortable tonight.
Pick: Oregon –14 (–105). Low confidence.
Miami @ NY Jets
The question here is how much worse the Jets are with Tim Boyle than with Zach Wilson, and while we do agree with the markets that the move makes them worse, you would think that they think it makes them better. Otherwise, they wouldn’t make it. This means this pick requires us to trust the Jets on two levels—basic competence and good decision-making. We’re not comfortable doing that, but we’re trying out this system, and clearly the other things we’ve been doing haven’t worked.
Pick: NY Jets +9.5 (–110). Low confidence.
