Remember yesterday, when we told you that today we would post all our football bets for the weekend, plus the final mini-portfolio of our months-long set of election futures?
Yeah, we were wrong about that.
We’ll post the election mini-portfolio tomorrow, plus our picks for tomorrow’s college football and our Sunday Night Football play. We ran out of time today, so we’re just doing a pair of Friday night games here.
San Diego State @ Boise State
Three things:
The average of Movelor, SP+, and FPI has this leaning towards San Diego State, and over the last few hours, the line has inched towards Boise State, potentially because of a recreational public getting excited for another Friday night of Ashton Jeanty.
While I think Boise State should lean on Jeanty tonight, if the goal is to win him the Heisman, I doubt they’re thinking of it that way. I’d guess they’re looking to protect their guy after a large, violent, difficult workload last week which made him leave the game twice for breathers.
San Diego State has only allowed more than 24 points twice, and they’ve yet to allow more than 31. Boise State has a better offense than anyone else they’ve played, but it’s hard to see the Broncos getting to 40 here without some costly SDSU turnovers. Can San Diego State score 14 or 15 points against an iffy Boise State defense? We won’t put it past them.
Pick: San Diego State +24.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Yale @ Columbia
Last week, we showed some deference to the FCS market, speculating that there was a Yale injury we didn’t know about. There was not, unless we still don’t know about it. Yale crushed Penn. This week, then, we’re going to fight the last war, and while that’s a dangerous game to play, we’re encouraged by what Yale’s done these last two weeks, looking more like the team they were supposed to be than the team they were against Cornell and CCSU. Columbia’s having a nice little year, but this is still the team who lost to Georgetown, and they’re coming off a shorter week and a more taxing game than their guests are.
Pick: Yale –2 (–110). Low confidence.
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How we do this, and how we’re doing:
Single-game college football bets: We’re always mediocre on these, but we’ve been awful this year. We’re 28–32–1 so far, down 6.50 units. We do use Movelor, our model’s rating system, to guide these, but we don’t always follow its lead.
Overall: All-time, we’ve completed 8,481 published bets. We weight our units by confidence: 1 unit for low confidence, 2 for medium, 3 for high. Our all-time return is very, very bad. –5%. Worse than coin flip betting. Most of this is because our MLB futures portfolio just got smoked, but even before that, we were around a 2% all-time deficit. As we’ve been saying, we’re going to bet enough on election market layups to get back even all-time, but our track record on published sports bets is terrible. We can’t in good conscience recommend anybody follow our bets, even beyond the legal disclaimer piece.
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These are for entertainment purposes and are not at all investment advice. If you think you might have a gambling problem, please call 1–800–GAMBLER to learn more and/or seek help.
