Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,825 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.4% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Our college football picks for the weekend first, then two college basketball plays for tonight.
College Football
San Diego State @ UNLV
UNLV’s won two straight. San Diego State has as well. For UNLV, that’s more surprising, since the Rebels were previously 0-8. Are the former Mountain West cellar dwellers playing better? Yes. Are they playing this much better? No.
Pick: San Diego State -11 (-110). Low confidence.
Wake Forest @ Clemson
Can you imagine getting these odds on Clemson/Wake Forest in August? Obviously, a lot has changed, but many of the fundamentals remain the same. Clemson should get the win here, and not too uncomfortably.
Pick: Clemson -4.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Rice @ UTEP
UTEP’s lost three straight, but they’ve been competitive in two of them and the other was against UTSA. There doesn’t seem to be anything actually wrong with these guys.
Pick: UTEP -9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Wyoming @ Utah State
A big thing working in Wyoming’s favor here is there ability to keep games close. Even against Boise State last week, the Cowboys were within a score entering the fourth quarter. Utah State’s hot, but Wyoming isn’t as bad as their conference record looks.
Pick: Wyoming +5 (-105). Low confidence.
***
College Basketball
Southern @ South Dakota
I haven’t seen anything about Ahsante Shivers, who hasn’t played for Southern in its 1-2 start (highlight: Beat Tulane in New Orleans). Regardless, South Dakota should be fine, even after losing by 49 at Drake this week. They’re enough better to make this worthwhile.
Pick: South Dakota to win -265. Medium confidence.
UTEP @ Pacific
Jamari Sibley should be back for UTEP after being benched on Tuesday against a directional New Mexico school. Even with him in the game, though, Pacific’s just probably the better team here. Yes, 0-2 against D-I foes, but neither was really an embarrassing loss. The Tigers should get the win, and we’ll take this point for the price we’re getting it.
Pick: Pacific +1.5 (-105). Medium confidence.
